Nearly 70% of mobile market now backs satellite deals

Thu, 22nd Oct 2026 (Today)

Nearly 70% of the global mobile market is now covered by operators with at least one satellite partnership, according to GSMA Intelligence. The research group said the trend shows satellite and non-terrestrial networks have entered the telecoms mainstream.

Its latest quarterly tracker also pointed to stronger momentum at Starlink, rising consolidation across the satellite sector, and a growing focus on sovereignty in network design and supply chains.

GSMA Intelligence measures the total mobile subscriber footprint of operators that have signed at least one satellite deal, rather than the number of people already using non-terrestrial services. It said those operators have an average of 1.5 satellite partnerships each, suggesting mobile groups are working with multiple providers as they extend coverage and test different models.

Tim Hatt, head of research and consulting at GSMA Intelligence, said coverage remains the main commercial driver. Operators are using satellite agreements to expand network reach and defend their position on network quality.

"The numbers in the table come from our tracker of mobile operators with at least one satellite partnership. As you can see, that represents just under 70% of global market share. There is some regional variation, but not a huge amount. This is very much a global phenomenon," said Tim Hatt, head of research and consulting at GSMA Intelligence.

The figures add to evidence that direct-to-device and other NTN services are no longer a niche topic discussed only by satellite specialists. Mobile operators in both mature and emerging markets are now building them into network plans, even if near-term adoption remains modest and uneven by geography.

Starlink growth

Hatt said SpaceX's Starlink connectivity business continued to post rapid revenue growth. He described it as the wider company's profit driver and said its economics were improving as revenue rose against a largely fixed operating base.

"They have a connectivity business that was growing at 66% a year, a very strong growth rate. That's up 3 percentage points in their latest results, to around 69%. It continues to be the profit driver of the business and has a positive margin. Their EBITDA is going up, and that's driven by operating leverage, with higher revenues off a fixed cost base," said Hatt.

Even so, he said Starlink's current scale remains small relative to the total market outlined in earlier investor materials. That leaves room for further expansion while also underlining how early the wider market still is.

GSMA Intelligence said Starlink controls about 90% of deployed orbital satellite capacity when measured across total satellites in space rather than only direct-to-device assets. That lead has helped shape the competitive response from other players and increased pressure for mergers and strategic combinations.

Hatt also pointed to Starlink's stated interest in becoming a broader mobile connectivity provider in the United States. He said there were still clear limits to what that model could achieve on its own, and that access to spectrum and land rights would affect how far such a strategy could develop.

Consolidation trend

One of the clearest themes in the tracker was the value now attached to vertical integration. In this context, GSMA Intelligence means ownership across launch, satellites, connectivity and ground routing infrastructure.

Only a small number of companies can claim that kind of full-stack control. SpaceX is one, and Amazon is expected to become another. Hatt said Rocket Lab's planned acquisition of Iridium showed that other groups also want greater control of spectrum and infrastructure.

"I think the other point we've made before, and this reinforces it, is that in part because of the Starlink activity and in part because of the commercial opportunity through direct to device for the broader telco and satellite ecosystem, consolidation has moved up the agenda faster," said Hatt.

He listed a series of transactions and tie-ups across the sector, including SES and Intelsat, Omnispace and Lynk with SES as a strategic investor, and the earlier combination of Eutelsat and OneWeb. The pattern, he said, points to the need for scale in both infrastructure and spectrum if providers want to compete effectively, especially in direct-to-device services.

GSMA Intelligence said financial pressure is a major factor. Satellite networks require large upfront spending and ongoing operating costs. Providers need a broad enough revenue base for the model to work over time.

"This is an expensive business to be in. It's not cheap to launch satellites, and it's not cheap to operate them. So getting to the point of operating leverage, meaning a growing revenue base across a very large fixed cost base, is essential for financial sustainability here," said Hatt.

Sovereignty push

The other major theme in the tracker was sovereignty. GSMA Intelligence said governments and industry players are paying closer attention to where constellations are built, which supply chains are used, and whether systems meet domestic or regional strategic requirements.

That debate has become sharper in Europe. Large mobile groups in the region are studying whether collective action around mobile satellite spectrum could produce a stronger regional position. Hatt declined to comment on specific transactions or proposals, but said the broad direction of travel was clear.

"I would just say at a high level, I think it points to the value of scale and collaboration working here," said Hatt.

Luciana Camargos, head of spectrum at GSMA, said interest from European operators in coordinated satellite initiatives was unsurprising. She also said the outcome remained uncertain at this stage.

"I think it remains to be seen. I think that's the whole purpose of the proposal. Whether a European operator or satellite operator will succeed on this remains to be seen. It's very unclear at this stage," said Luciana Camargos, head of spectrum at GSMA.

Hatt said Europe, like the United States and other regions, increasingly sees satellite as a strategic communications asset. That raises the likelihood of policy and commercial efforts aimed at sustaining domestic champions, or at least stronger regional bargaining power.

Africa focus

Africa is likely to remain a key market for NTN expansion. GSMA Intelligence said the region still has the highest share of people living outside mobile coverage and one of the highest usage gaps. That creates a commercial case for satellite links in areas where terrestrial networks remain thin or expensive to expand.

"Africa does have the highest share of the population still in a coverage gap, and it also has one of the highest shares of the usage gap. So there is a rationale for mobile operators to use satellite partnerships to extend connectivity into underserved areas," said Hatt.

He said direct-to-device services are already available in some areas, and broader coverage across much of the world could emerge towards the end of the decade, depending on provider rollout.

At the same time, GSMA speakers stressed that local regulation remains a deciding factor. Camargos said market entry depends on whether operators comply with national licensing rules and other obligations linked to access rights.

Demand conditions also vary. In countries with strong terrestrial coverage, direct-to-device may serve more as a resilience layer than a daily access service. That is particularly relevant in Europe, where extensive 4G and 5G coverage limits the number of situations in which users need a satellite connection.

Barbara Pareglio, technical lead at GSMA and head of the NTN community, said usage can remain low in countries that already have dense mobile coverage, even when satellite service is technically available. She cited Japan as one example and said larger opportunities are likely in markets such as the United States, Australia and New Zealand, where coverage gaps are wider.

In better-served markets, Hatt said the commercial pitch is more about continuity than basic access. Consumers may value service wherever they travel within a country and potentially when roaming abroad. Businesses may value more reliable uptime when fixed or mobile links fail in rural or remote locations.

The tracker covers both direct-to-device and IoT partnerships. Hatt said work to integrate NTN technologies through 3GPP standards has widened the addressable market. He added that consumer use is likely to be the largest segment in the long run, though IoT and business services will also account for a meaningful share.

For now, GSMA Intelligence's central message is that satellite is moving from the trial stage into commercial telecoms planning. Operators are adding partners, satellite companies are seeking scale, and regional governments are treating orbital infrastructure as part of national and economic strategy.